Former options trader (Lebanon, 1960) who turned professional distrust into a philosophy of life. His Incerto books gave us a whole vocabulary for uncertainty: black swans, Extremistan, the turkey problem (the turkey trusts the farmer more every day, until Thanksgiving), skin in the game, and his best coinage, antifragile: the opposite of fragile is not robust, it is the thing that gets BETTER when you shake it. Famously combative, blocks people on Twitter with genuine enthusiasm.